Project FERC Filings and More

The sleepy AK LNG project is generating a flurry of FERC filings.  None are monumentally interesting or overly informative, but if you are following the project take a look and enjoy the filings:

1) Summary of the 10/29/14 telephone conversation re  Alaska Gasline Development Corporation's Alaska LNG Project under PF14-21

2) Summary of the 10/28/14 Telephone conversation re Alaska Department of Natural Resources' Alaska LNG Project under PF14-21

3)   Summary of the 2014-January-2015 conference call between FERC Staff, Alaska LNG Project Staff et al re the Bi-Weekly Pre-filing Process conference call for the Alaska LNG Project  under PF15-21.

4)  Summary of the 10/27/14 Interagency Meeting re laska Gasline Development Corporation's Alaska LNG Project  under PF14-21.


5) Summary of the 10/30/14 Telephone conversation re Alaska Gasline Development Corporation's Alaska LNG Project under PF14-21.


This sounds chilling (i.e. what fresh regulatory horrors are brewing?):

• In addition, the project will require an Alaska National Interest Lands Conservation Act section 810 evaluation. (BLM and the DOI)
•  There is a new arctic policy, which this project will be the test case for its development. This policy is an integrated approach to approving development or projects in the arctic region. This group is wondering how to integrate its process into the National Environmental Policy Act process. (DOI)
  

 6) Alaska LNG Project Monthly Pre-Flining Status Report No. 4 (December 2014)by Alaska Gasline Development Corporation, BP Alaska LNG LLC,ConocoPhillips Alaska LNG Coompany, ExxonMobil Alaska LNG LLC, & TransCanada Alaska Midstream LP under PF14-21.

7) Alaska LNG Project - Community Meetings Summary Letter by Alaska Gasline Development Corporation, BP Alaska LNG LLC, ConocoPhillips Alaska LNG Company, ExxonMobil Alaska LNG LLC, TransCanada Alaska Midstream LP under PF14-21.


Other News: H.R. 351, The LNG Permitting Certainty and Transparency Act  passed the House of Representatives with a vote of 277-133.  Bill Link

This Just In..................

No (productive) Alaska LNG news these days so here's some news of a North Slope producer with plans to build 15 - 30 MTPA of capacity in British Columbia:

Globe and Mail Exxon plans to spend up to $25-billion to export B.C. LNG

Project Description

It's early days, but Alaskans need to take note and let this one soak in. The investment and project magnitude is on par with Alaskan LNG, but Exxon / Imperial are moving forward in B.C.

Early days, but British Columbia may beat Alaska in the LNG race.

TransCanada Out?

Link

Perhaps this is a procedural step needed in order to make way for the new and improved project team.

Canadian LNG Report

In terms of markets, project cost, technology, and risk the proposed Alaskan Gas Pipeline and LNG project has a lot in common with the proposed western British Columbia LNG projects.

Here's a link to a report titled: "RISKY BUSINESS: THE ISSUE OF TIMING, ENTRY AND PERFORMANCE IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC LNG MARKET" M.C. Moore, D. Hackett, L. Noda, J. Winter, R. Karski and M. Pilcher The School of Public Policy

H.R. 6, the Domestic Prosperity and Global Freedom Act

Get'r Done Bill for LNG Exports

Link

Link to Bill

Somewhere a village is missing an idiot

I'd like to remain professional and objective when confronted with opinions I disagree with....but then there's this guy:

Senator Ed Markey of Massachusetts

Markey thinks LNG exports are against the law (read the madness here)

As twits go I like these guys much better:

Maybe Markey will over play his hand and someday domestic oil can will be exported overseas.  Just imagine - free markets at work without government interference.

 Who's your favorite twit?

SB - 138 Signed

Alaska Governor Sean Parnell has signed SB-138, the legislation that may enable the Alaska gas pipeline and LNG plant.

Link to Press Release

SB 138 selected links and documents

Enalytica

Lisa Weissler Comments 20140219.pdf

Black&Veatch Presentation

Stand Off ? Game Over ?

Platts reports that the State of Alaska "will withhold an offer of special state fiscal terms for a large North Slope gas pipeline and liquefied natural gas project until companies working on the project reach agreement on terms among themselves to proceed with the project"

Interesting news - Obviously the AGIA project team of TransCanada and ExxonMobil will need to agree to abandon AGIA for new undisclosed agreement and project structure.

If TransCanada and the North Slope producers assemble a new project structure will the new project include an equity position for the state? And what about the Japanese (JBIC & REI) I'd like to think customers with money to invest would have a role on the project.

There are a lot of moving parts here and the state of Alaska and the producers have spent years and millions of dollars with very little to show for their efforts.  The clock is ticking down and I see Governor Sean Parnell losing the game in the last second.

The first big loss happened on Sarah Palin's watch - The gas line was almost a reality when North American shale gas burst upon the scene.  North Slope producer ExxonMobil bet big on shale gas ($40billion) and bought XTO.  Fractional term Governor Palin's introduction of AGIA burned valuable time off the clock and the win went to gas investments elsewhere.

The full impact of shale gas was not immediately apparent and it took some years for the overland Alaska gasline to morph into an all-Alaska gasline feeding an LNG export terminal.

Along the way fate dealt Japan a cruel hand in the form of a devastating earthquake which also destroyed nuclear plants at Fukushima.  The magnitude of the Fukushima disaster resulted in the closing of all nuclear plants in Japan and a dramatic uptick in Japan's need for imported energy including LNG.

Somehow the state skillfully avoided the obvious and failed to engage with Alaska's long term LNG customer to strike a deal.

Meanwhile cheap shale gas in Texas and Louisiana prompted many Gulf of Mexico LNG import terminals to invest in LNG export projects.  Soon, the first loads of GOM LNG will hit the market.  A portion of those sales will go to Japan.  Again other projects are getting built while Alaska make no progress.

The losses keep piling up. Maybe Governor Parnell knows what he's doing but the producers have hundreds of competing projects with known variables competing for their investment dollars.  In fairness to the Governor he did win the battle of Point Thomson so I have some level of faith in his abilities.

Other opportunities exist (state equity position, and low interest customer government backed financing).  Again Alaska is avoiding the win or ignoring the clock, either way investment dollars are poised to go elsewhere.

The clock is ticking, and oh by the way interest rates are heading up. Spoiler Alert Governor Parnell - interest rates will kill the gas line for decades unless the grand bargain is reached in 2014.

New Alaska LNG Study

Alaska North Slope Royalty Study has been released (Website LINK), (Study Link)

First impressions - study hits on the major factors: Fiscal Certainty and Risk Allocation.

LNG Map

API has produced a new online map of LNG projects.  Don't look for the Alaska LNG project - it didn't rate a pin on the map.

Lnik to API LNG map

JBIC MOU with DNR for LNG

(Reuters) - Alaska has signed an agreement with the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) to investigate natural resource exports in a renewed sign of demand for the state's natural gas, officials said on Wednesday.

Link  MOU

Link  Press Release

Link REI LNG Project Slides 

Link More REI Slides (15-20 mmtpa concept)

Link : REI-LNG website

Liking the sound of this: "A large-volume natural gas pipeline and export facilities"

Update: Interesting context for the agreement with Japan: The last Japanese nuclear plant has been closed (LINK)

Project Pulse: Flatlined

 

The latest Alaska Pipeline Project's Pre-Filing Status Report for 2ed Quarter 2013 is a one pager that shows less progress than the last no-progress report (LINK TO FERC ELibrary).

Here's the content of the report:

• Open Season:  Notice was provided to the Commission on May 3, 2012 that the first binding Open Season was terminated as of that date. 
• Public Outreach: A Stakeholder Engagement Plan was filed with the FERC on April 5, 2010. No engagement has occurred in the past quarter. 
• Pipeline Right-of-Way and Engineering: Pipeline engineering and technology development work initiated to date has been completed and documented.
• Gas Treatment Plant (GTP): Engineering deliverables have been archived for potential future use.
• Environmental Planning and Permitting: No Environmental planning or permitting work has been conducted in the past quarter, although invoices for 2012 work continue to be processed.
• Project Meetings: The project had no additional contact with federal, state, and local agencies that have regulatory approval or other interests regarding the Project in 2Q2013. 
• Project Activity in Canada:FERC requested an update of Project activities in Canada in these activity reports. Completed remaining field program work and permit requirements with federal and territorial and provincial governments.

Aside from Bill Walker no one seems to be agitated by this de facto termination of the project. According to some observers it's not time to blow down the North Slope gas. (LINK).  If it's not time to blow down the gas why does Alaska continue to burn AGIA money?

Here's a look at the AGIA funds expended as of the January 2013 report:

 

If the Quarterly FERC report is an accurate indication of the project health why do Alaskans continue to shovel money at it?

North Slope Producer Applies for LNG Export Licence

If you think this is good news for the Alaska gas line and LNG project you would be wrong.

The 4 BCF / 30 MTPA LNG project is being developed by WCC LNG, an entity owned by  Exxon Mobil and Imperial Oil Resources. The project will be built in the Kitimat and Prince Rupert area.

• LINK TO APPLICATION DOCUMENTS
• LINK TO APPLICATION

There's talk of an Alaska LNG project announcement soon (no later than 30 Jun 13).  That may just be wishful thinking -The WCC application has all but one of the ingredients needed for an Alaska LNG project, i.e. it's not in Alaska.

The project will be based on Canadian shale gas resources but may ultimately recieve gas from other sources:

The LNG Terminal will access gas primarily from the WCSB. Given the  ntegrated nature of the North American gas markets and pipeline network, gas supply could also potentially come from other Canadian or North American basins over the life of the LNG Terminal.

 So maybe some day an Alaska gas line to Canada may send gas to an export terminal in Canada. By someday I mean decades from now.

This news combined with the Petronas Canada LNG project announcement leads me to believe that Canada will export LNG before North Slope gas is exported.


The cost of the WCC project is not stated and the project is not approved yet.  This non-Alaska Exxon Mobil LNG terminal may become a powerful bargaining chip in negotiations with the State of Alaska.  Alaskans won't like that and I'll bet Exxon Mobil comes out the winner no matter which project goes forward.

The good news for Alaska, is that the Canadian upstream is not as developed as the North Slope upstream which means the unit cost of West Coast Canadian LNG may be within 10% of the cost of North Slope LNG exported from South Central Alaska - that 10% may offer room to negotiate.

Alaska South Central LNG (SCLNG) Project update.

Project update.  MAY 2013 (LINK) 

FEB 2013 (LINK)

Alaska/Japan LNG Opportunity Resources Energy, Inc. - A customer's view.

At long last an Alaska LNG customer's concept for a project.  (LINK)

At first read I noted something you rarely see in Alaska Gas Pipeline or Alaska LNG project proposals - as sense of urgency.

They also mention Royalty in Kind (RIK).  This is starting to sound like stakeholders like the State and Customers may bring resources to the project and start moving forward.

RFP 2013-1000-1881 North Slope Royalty Gas Study

Another study is in the works. LINK

Screenshots of the good bits:

I'm not sure how to interpret this.  It could mean the state or other parties want an equity share in the project.  It will give the State another study to point at.   As time passes I'm beginning to join the "never gonna happen" camp.

Know Your Competition

The progress and possibilities of American LNG projects have been neatly summarized in a competitive bracket format (Article Link), (Bracket PDF Link).

There are no Western Canadian projects on the bracket, but Alaska's Gas Pipeline / LNG project is listed as a wildcard.

It's a good summary and informative in terms of the projects that are competing for LNG investment dollars.

Spoiler alert - Alaska may not be winning!

2013 Alaska Gas Heroes and Zeros

Heroes

(1)    Great Bear Petroleum.  These guys took a fresh look at Alaska’s petroleum resources, invested in their ideas and completed their objectives.  New gas and new oil from Alaskan shale deposits will fill the oil and gas pipelines in the future.  Great job – best wishes for continued success.

(2)    Everyone working at Point Thomson.  Oil and gas from Point Thomson will fill the pipeline(s).  All the hard work at Point Thomson will pay off in the future.

(3)    ExxonMobil & The State of Alaska – Nice job on the Point Thomson settlement.

(4)    Governor Parnell – Ramped up his game in 2012, meeting with North Slope Producers CEOs - Bob Dudley of BP, Jim Mulva of ConocoPhillips and Rex Tillerson of Exxon Mobil.  The Point Thomson settlement cleared the deck and in March 2012 the producers announced that they had aligned. He also hit the road and started talking to LNG customers.

(5)    Pedro van Meurs – Keep on sticking to the math and providing reality checks.

(6)    LNG Buyers – The Alaska Gas project is a nonstarter without LNG Buyers and this year we started seeing Japanese and Korean LNG Buyers enter the picture.  With a bit of luck the buyers will become equity partners and help move the project forward.

(7)    Cheniere Energy & Sasol.  Cheniere is moving forward with a lower 48 LNG export project and Sasol is moving forward with a lower 48 gas-to-liquids (GTL) project.  These types of projects will sponge up lower 48 shale gas, and boost gas prices.  Projects like these lead the way and Alaskans should take note and understand the parameters of real world natural gas success stories (here’s a hint – fiscal certainty).
8)  Combined Cycle Power Plants.  One by one high efficiency combined cycle power plants are coming on line.  These plants will replace aging coal plants over the next decade and consume lots of lower 48 natural gas, which will help build natural gas prices back up to a reasonable level.  Anything the builds lower 48 gas price support helps the Alaska gasline project.  Congrats to TVA for bring the John Sevier Combined Cycle plant online ahead of schedule and below cost.

Zeros

(1)    Matt Damon.  Shale gas hater Damon received funding for his anti-shale gas movie from the United ArabEmirates.  The public discourse about lower 48 shale gas ultimately impacts the price of gas, jobs and the future of gas exports from Alaska.  Bad shale gas law could choke Alaskan shale gas development. The American electorate is about as uninformed, uneducated and mathematically impaired as is possible.  It’s sad to see the simpletons led astray by one of our own funded by those who will profit from our poverty. (Ask me how I really feel!).

(2)    The 2012 presidential campaign.  There was no real discussion of the economic benefits of domestic energy development – a real missed opportunity.  Good policies now could help Alaska in the future. In 2008 I looked forward to 2012, now I’m almost certain that we are in the first years of the idiocracy.

(3)    I could name some other maladroit zeros closer to home, mainly for inaction, but for the time being I’m hopeful that project alignment, real customers and forward momentum will pull them along.

 Good luck in the new year, and work safely.

LNG Customer Meets with Governor Parnell

We need more stories like these - KOGAS CEO meets with Governor Sean Parnell (LINK).

Alaska Governor Sean Parnell and Mr. Kangsoo Choo, the Chief Executive Officer and President of Korea Gas Corp (KOGAS)

From CEO  Mr. Kangsoo Choo KOGAS website :

Expansion of participation in overseas network projects
We are assertively expanding participation in overseas network project in joint-venture with private sector. On the foundation of design/construction/operational technology and specialized manpower for production and supply facility, which are the core capacities of KOGAS, we will nurture KOGAS to become reputable gas major in the world by not only expanding construction and operation of overseas LNG terminal, LNG liquefaction plant and pipeline network but also by playing the role of bridgehead for advancement of domestic enterprises into overseas market..

Sounds like an equity partner for the LNG plant?

KOGAS is also a take-or-pay buyer of the Cheniere Energy Sabine Pass LNG project.  So far the Cheniere business plan for the Sabine Pass LNG plant seems to be working, i.e. long term take or pay contracts to pre-sale the LNG product.

 More on the same story from LNG WORLD (LINK)

Other tidbits -

Canadian competition: Petronas working on BC LNG (LINK)

Washington Post article on the market for US LNG (LINK)

ExxonMobil Energy outlook (LINK)