Sunday, November 29, 2009

GIS Prototype

Back in September the Alaska Natural Gas Transportation Project Office of the Federal Coordinator published an article titled: OFC Plans Development Of An Integrated GIS Prototype For Viewing And Studying Proposed Gas Pipeline Route.

This morning I was poking around on the interweb and located the prototype - (LINK) Check it out. Looks interesting - I'd like a private version with grayling and burbot hotspots!

04 DEC 09 UPDATE - Last week this link worked. After a week of reviewing the site they slapped some security on the website - too bad, it was nice to be able to look at a tiny sliver of tangible work product coming out of the OFC. So much for transparency in government!

Alaska Gas Pipeline Presentations

Here's a handful of recent presentations located on the Resource Development Council for Alaska website:

The TransCanada–ExxonMobil Pipeline Project - Tony Palmer, Vice President Alaska Development, TransCanada

The Denali Pipeline Project Bud Fackrell, President, Denali: The Alaska Gas Pipeline

Federal Perspective on Alaska Gas Pipeline Projects Drue Pearce, (Soon to be former) Federal Coordinator, Office of the Federal Coordinator for Alaska Natural Gas Transportation Projects.

Thursday, November 26, 2009

Outbound LNG

What happens when natural gas storage is full and shale gas discoveries abound? ConocoPhillips exports LNG from storage! (LINK).

In May Freeport received regulatory approval to re-export foreign-sourced LNG from its terminal. This enabled Freeport and its customers to profit from seasonal price swings by importing LNG during summer, storing it and re-exporting to higher-paying markets in winter.

The 6.4 bcf of storage capacity at Freeport is nearly full, giving customers such as Conoco the option to re-export.

Previously, analysts had not expected to see much re-exporting activity from Freeport this year because thin LNG price differentials between global markets slimmed profitability. But, as Asian LNG prices rise toward January, margins could widen.
Add international LNG margins to the domestic gas equation - one more way to soak up high inventories. As inventories drop, domestic prices will find support above the $4.50/MMBTU level. For pipeline economics calculations this price level forms a lower boundary.

As a business model summer buying and winter exporting may prove profitable and add some small measure of price stability throughout the calendar year. Ultimately liquification capacity may be built to find foreign outlets for excess Gulf Coast gas.

Bottom line - all these factors are good development of the Alaska Gas Pipeline.

Sunday, November 22, 2009

Excessive Rates of Return

AGIA darling TransCanada has some explaining to do - The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) is investigating (LINK-From Reuters):

FERC said the alleged higher rates of return were as follows:
* Great Lakes' 2,100-mile system transports natural gas through Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan. FERC staff calculated Great Lakes' total adjusted 2008 revenue to be US$290-million, which appears to yield an estimated earned return of 20.83%.

*Northern Natural Gas' 15,141-mile system extends from the Permian Basin in Texas to the upper Midwest. FERC staff calculated Northern's total adjusted 2008 revenue to be US$726-million, which appears to yield an estimated earned return on equity of 24.36%.

* Natural Gas Pipeline's 9,700-mile system consists primarily of two interconnected transmission pipelines, the Amarillo and Gulf Coast lines, which terminate in Chicago. FERC staff calculated Natural Gas' total adjusted 2008 revenue to be US$656-million, which appears to yield an estimated earned return of 24.5%.

FERC ordered that an administrative law judge convene within 30 days a prehearing conference to clarify the positions of the pipeline companies and the agency and consider any procedural issues and discovery dates necessary for the hearing.

Natural Gas Pipeline, FERC said, appears to be over-recovering fuel and lost and unaccounted for gas from its customers.

FERC said its staff calculated an over-recovery of 30.9 million dekatherms of gas.
Keep in mind that FERC (not the State of Alaska) will ultimately allow or disallow construction of the Alaska Gas Pipeline.

Take a look at those rates of return. Wow - lets' hope Alaska works a better deal - Oh wait the TransCanada money pipeline is already flowing out from Alaska.

Sunday, November 15, 2009

Denali Pipeline Updates

The Denali Pipeline has some new updates available:

Give a listen to Bud Fackrell's comments to the Alaska World Affairs Council.

Also take a look at the update on the Denali website.

Take aways - The open season schedule looks like it's firming up, and holy smoke! A 5,000 ton module looks ginormous!

Saturday, November 7, 2009

Shale Gas Numbers May Not Add Up?

The interweb is starting to heat up with discussions that shale gas may not re-write the books on North American Gas supply. Here's a few links on the topic:

Shale gas row gets nasty

Art Berman's Blog

Shale Gas: Promises, Promises, Promises

Shale Gas Companies: All Talk, No Walk?

Poll question - Can $8/MMBTU Shale Gas permanently strand Alaska's Gas?

Friday, November 6, 2009

AGIA Report

LINK to the State of Alaska Department of Revenue Department of Natural Resource Report Alaska Pipeline Project Report - Licensed under the Alaska Gasline Inducement Act (AGIA) dated 31 October 09.