IGU LNG Report

Good report on LNG developments.  Long list of North American projects on page 36.

Here's a shocker - Alaska Gas Pipeline and LNG project are barely mentioned. (LINK). 

Other Pipelines and Projects

The Alaska Gas Pipeline and associated LNG plant is, according to all the evidence I can gather, dead for at least another decade.  The slides presented with the ExxonMobil second quarter earning conference call still list Alaska as one of the "Upstream LNG future opportunities".  See page 17 of the presentation slide set.

 

The Alaska LNG project does not even rate a bullet for explanation and none of the analyst in attendance had any interest in Alaska LNG.  Here's the only mention of the Alaska LNG rpoject:

We also continue to assess other LNG opportunities in Alaska, Australia, Russia and Tanzania. A range of factors will be considered before any final investment decision is made, in particular, the fiscal and regulatory regime, market conditions, and capital costs.(Transcript Link)

They did mention that pesky concept of fiscal and regulatory regime for  the umpteenth time but I don't expect Alaska to sit up and listen, Tanzania might get in the game, but Alaska can't stop hating long enough to cut a good durable deal.  In the mean time other projects emerge or fade in response to market forces.

The Russian Shtokman project has been canceled. This project was an offshore version of the Alaska project with a combination of gas exports via pipeline and 15 MTPA of LNG.  The gas production rate was about half of the Alaska gas project size and the stated cost was about a quarter of the cost of the Alaska gas project.  The cost estimate seems light and I suspect the refined cost estimate pushed the project over the cliff of feasibility. Chalk up another victory to North American shale gas  I expect other marginal project to be cancelled as shale gas LNG moves forward.

New project of the week - $12 Billion TransCanada Energy East Project. The project involves conversion of a gas pipeline to oil and a total of 2700 miles of line across the Canada. Shipping for 900,000 BPD of the 1.1 million BPD capacity has already been contracted.

 

Nice job Canada - The project recycles an old pipeline and displaces imported oil. Jobs, Jobs Jobs - it's all about Jobs.

Project Pulse: Flatlined

 

The latest Alaska Pipeline Project's Pre-Filing Status Report for 2ed Quarter 2013 is a one pager that shows less progress than the last no-progress report (LINK TO FERC ELibrary).

Here's the content of the report:

• Open Season:  Notice was provided to the Commission on May 3, 2012 that the first binding Open Season was terminated as of that date. 
• Public Outreach: A Stakeholder Engagement Plan was filed with the FERC on April 5, 2010. No engagement has occurred in the past quarter. 
• Pipeline Right-of-Way and Engineering: Pipeline engineering and technology development work initiated to date has been completed and documented.
• Gas Treatment Plant (GTP): Engineering deliverables have been archived for potential future use.
• Environmental Planning and Permitting: No Environmental planning or permitting work has been conducted in the past quarter, although invoices for 2012 work continue to be processed.
• Project Meetings: The project had no additional contact with federal, state, and local agencies that have regulatory approval or other interests regarding the Project in 2Q2013. 
• Project Activity in Canada:FERC requested an update of Project activities in Canada in these activity reports. Completed remaining field program work and permit requirements with federal and territorial and provincial governments.

Aside from Bill Walker no one seems to be agitated by this de facto termination of the project. According to some observers it's not time to blow down the North Slope gas. (LINK).  If it's not time to blow down the gas why does Alaska continue to burn AGIA money?

Here's a look at the AGIA funds expended as of the January 2013 report:

 

If the Quarterly FERC report is an accurate indication of the project health why do Alaskans continue to shovel money at it?

North Slope Producer Applies for LNG Export Licence

If you think this is good news for the Alaska gas line and LNG project you would be wrong.

The 4 BCF / 30 MTPA LNG project is being developed by WCC LNG, an entity owned by  Exxon Mobil and Imperial Oil Resources. The project will be built in the Kitimat and Prince Rupert area.

• LINK TO APPLICATION DOCUMENTS
• LINK TO APPLICATION

There's talk of an Alaska LNG project announcement soon (no later than 30 Jun 13).  That may just be wishful thinking -The WCC application has all but one of the ingredients needed for an Alaska LNG project, i.e. it's not in Alaska.

The project will be based on Canadian shale gas resources but may ultimately recieve gas from other sources:

The LNG Terminal will access gas primarily from the WCSB. Given the  ntegrated nature of the North American gas markets and pipeline network, gas supply could also potentially come from other Canadian or North American basins over the life of the LNG Terminal.

 So maybe some day an Alaska gas line to Canada may send gas to an export terminal in Canada. By someday I mean decades from now.

This news combined with the Petronas Canada LNG project announcement leads me to believe that Canada will export LNG before North Slope gas is exported.


The cost of the WCC project is not stated and the project is not approved yet.  This non-Alaska Exxon Mobil LNG terminal may become a powerful bargaining chip in negotiations with the State of Alaska.  Alaskans won't like that and I'll bet Exxon Mobil comes out the winner no matter which project goes forward.

The good news for Alaska, is that the Canadian upstream is not as developed as the North Slope upstream which means the unit cost of West Coast Canadian LNG may be within 10% of the cost of North Slope LNG exported from South Central Alaska - that 10% may offer room to negotiate.

Alaska South Central LNG (SCLNG) Project update.

Project update.  MAY 2013 (LINK) 

FEB 2013 (LINK)

Canadian and L48 LNG Project Progress

Pacific Northwest LNG is making progress on their LNG export project planned for Prince Rupert B.C.  From their press release:

 Pacific NorthWest LNG Ltd. has awarded Front-End Engineering and Design (“FEED”) contracts for its proposed liquefied natural gas (“LNG”) facility in British Columbia to three international engineering contractors - Bechtel, KBR/JGC joint venture, and Technip/Samsung Engineering/China Huanqiu joint venture.

The project timeline currently aims for an investment decision in 2014 and project completion in 2018.

Also - Real progress on L48 LNG projects : LINK

Sabine Pass Liquefaction Project ( In Construction) 2.2 BCFD equivalent with room to expand, customers and financing locked in.

Feeeport LNG (clearing permitting hurdles)  2.0 BCFD equivalent, customers signed on, construction planned to start later this year.

Once again Alaska is getting left behind.  Every day and every time I hear about another project announcement I grow a little closer to the "never going to happen" point of view for the Alaskan LNG project.

Alaska/Japan LNG Opportunity Resources Energy, Inc. - A customer's view.

At long last an Alaska LNG customer's concept for a project.  (LINK)

At first read I noted something you rarely see in Alaska Gas Pipeline or Alaska LNG project proposals - as sense of urgency.

They also mention Royalty in Kind (RIK).  This is starting to sound like stakeholders like the State and Customers may bring resources to the project and start moving forward.