LNG Project Presentations

The project concept letter from last week was brief and left readers wanting more detail.  This week Mr. Steve Butt Senior Project, Manager Alaska LNG Concept Selection provided a presentation "Progress Exxon/Mobil ConocoPhillips BP &, TransCanada Have Made to Advance North Slope, Natural Gas Development"

LINKS

Video

PDF

Thanks to Matt Buxton, Government Reporter, Fairbanks Daily News-Miner  for providing the links.

I think you'll find the presentation is more informative than the letter.



 

Alaska Gas Pipeline Concept Letter

The North Slope producers and TransCanada have released a letter to Alaska Governor Sean Parnell (LINK to Letter). According to the letter the group has completed the concept selection phase.

 

Nothing earth shattering about the concept.  No indication of any level of commitment. Note that the letter is not signed by CEOs.  It does feel like we are getting nowhere faster these days.

 

Northern Alliance

I didn’t see this coming. Looks like a crafty deal. Possible new source of capital for the Alaska gas line?  Coordinated development of the Arctic. Free market at work - gotta love it




Exxon-Mobil Rosneft Arctic Deal LINK

ASAP - Bigger Pipe Dryer Gas

The Alaska Stand Alone Pipeline (ASAP) annual plan is out (LINK).

The 500 MCFD pipeline has grown from a "wet" gas 24" diameter (at 2500 psi) pipeline to a dry or lean gas 36" diameter (at 1480 psi) pipeline.

The change reflects a drop in value of natural gas liquids (NGL) due to - you guessed it - the lower 48 shale gas miracle. No NGLs means no propane for rural Alaska.

The project cost increased slightly to 7.7 B$ from 7.5 B$  (+/-30%)

The report inindicates that RFQs (Request for Qualifications) and RFPs (Request for Proposals) have been sent to qualified firms and that negotiations will start in January 2013.

The project lacks and agreement with and LNG anchor tenant.  Summary shown below (click to enlarge)

 

As projects go I suppose this is OK news unless you want a job soon or propane in the future. I'm always looking for the big impact announcements like "Notice to Proceed". Maybe next year....(the official Alaska Gas Pipeline blog motto).

2013 - Alaska off to a Slow Start, Again

Normally I look forward to reading a report titled "Alaska Pipeline Project's Pre-Filing Status Report 4th Quarter 2012 under PF09-11" The report documents that nothing remotely akin to progress is going on in Alaska..

The positive gas project news report of the week came from the Canadians, From Bloomberg:

Progress Energy Canada, purchased by Petronas last month for C$5.2 billion, selected Calgary-based TransCanada to build the Prince Rupert pipeline, which will be capable of expansion to 3.6 billion cubic feet a day, according to today’s statement. The project is TransCanada’s second proposed pipeline to an LNG export terminal on the West Coast, following its previously announced Coastal GasLink pipeline. 

2013 Alaska Gas Heroes and Zeros

Heroes

(1)    Great Bear Petroleum.  These guys took a fresh look at Alaska’s petroleum resources, invested in their ideas and completed their objectives.  New gas and new oil from Alaskan shale deposits will fill the oil and gas pipelines in the future.  Great job – best wishes for continued success.

(2)    Everyone working at Point Thomson.  Oil and gas from Point Thomson will fill the pipeline(s).  All the hard work at Point Thomson will pay off in the future.

(3)    ExxonMobil & The State of Alaska – Nice job on the Point Thomson settlement.

(4)    Governor Parnell – Ramped up his game in 2012, meeting with North Slope Producers CEOs - Bob Dudley of BP, Jim Mulva of ConocoPhillips and Rex Tillerson of Exxon Mobil.  The Point Thomson settlement cleared the deck and in March 2012 the producers announced that they had aligned. He also hit the road and started talking to LNG customers.

(5)    Pedro van Meurs – Keep on sticking to the math and providing reality checks.

(6)    LNG Buyers – The Alaska Gas project is a nonstarter without LNG Buyers and this year we started seeing Japanese and Korean LNG Buyers enter the picture.  With a bit of luck the buyers will become equity partners and help move the project forward.

(7)    Cheniere Energy & Sasol.  Cheniere is moving forward with a lower 48 LNG export project and Sasol is moving forward with a lower 48 gas-to-liquids (GTL) project.  These types of projects will sponge up lower 48 shale gas, and boost gas prices.  Projects like these lead the way and Alaskans should take note and understand the parameters of real world natural gas success stories (here’s a hint – fiscal certainty).
8)  Combined Cycle Power Plants.  One by one high efficiency combined cycle power plants are coming on line.  These plants will replace aging coal plants over the next decade and consume lots of lower 48 natural gas, which will help build natural gas prices back up to a reasonable level.  Anything the builds lower 48 gas price support helps the Alaska gasline project.  Congrats to TVA for bring the John Sevier Combined Cycle plant online ahead of schedule and below cost.

Zeros

(1)    Matt Damon.  Shale gas hater Damon received funding for his anti-shale gas movie from the United ArabEmirates.  The public discourse about lower 48 shale gas ultimately impacts the price of gas, jobs and the future of gas exports from Alaska.  Bad shale gas law could choke Alaskan shale gas development. The American electorate is about as uninformed, uneducated and mathematically impaired as is possible.  It’s sad to see the simpletons led astray by one of our own funded by those who will profit from our poverty. (Ask me how I really feel!).

(2)    The 2012 presidential campaign.  There was no real discussion of the economic benefits of domestic energy development – a real missed opportunity.  Good policies now could help Alaska in the future. In 2008 I looked forward to 2012, now I’m almost certain that we are in the first years of the idiocracy.

(3)    I could name some other maladroit zeros closer to home, mainly for inaction, but for the time being I’m hopeful that project alignment, real customers and forward momentum will pull them along.

 Good luck in the new year, and work safely.

LNG Customer Meets with Governor Parnell

We need more stories like these - KOGAS CEO meets with Governor Sean Parnell (LINK).

Alaska Governor Sean Parnell and Mr. Kangsoo Choo, the Chief Executive Officer and President of Korea Gas Corp (KOGAS)

From CEO  Mr. Kangsoo Choo KOGAS website :

Expansion of participation in overseas network projects
We are assertively expanding participation in overseas network project in joint-venture with private sector. On the foundation of design/construction/operational technology and specialized manpower for production and supply facility, which are the core capacities of KOGAS, we will nurture KOGAS to become reputable gas major in the world by not only expanding construction and operation of overseas LNG terminal, LNG liquefaction plant and pipeline network but also by playing the role of bridgehead for advancement of domestic enterprises into overseas market..

Sounds like an equity partner for the LNG plant?

KOGAS is also a take-or-pay buyer of the Cheniere Energy Sabine Pass LNG project.  So far the Cheniere business plan for the Sabine Pass LNG plant seems to be working, i.e. long term take or pay contracts to pre-sale the LNG product.

 More on the same story from LNG WORLD (LINK)

Other tidbits -

Canadian competition: Petronas working on BC LNG (LINK)

Washington Post article on the market for US LNG (LINK)

ExxonMobil Energy outlook (LINK)