Alaska Gas Line (and LNG) news

Maybe seeing huge masses of swirling clouds in the Gulf of Mexico leads one to think about diversification of LNG supplies.  Maybe spats between Persian Gulf neighbors reinforce the idea that its a good idea to seek some portion of your LNG supply elsewhere.

Whatever the reason news out of AGDC indicates that someone thinks Alaska LNG still has a place in the marketplace.  To quote the news release:

“The foundation customer capacity solicitation is an important step in the overall project development for the Alaska LNG project,” said AGDC President Keith Meyer. “
The process enabled us to secure Foundation Customer status on the transportation and liquefaction system in an open and non- discriminatory process. In addition to an Alaska producer  submitting a conforming intent to subscribe for capacity on the system, each of the three major producers expressed interest in selling gas to AGDC for further sale to the global LNG markets. When the agreements are completed, we will have gas supply and foundation customer capacity that will allow us to provide an attractive bundled LNG sale to global customers.”

Given the low prices of Gulf Coast shale gas it's hard to get too excited about this news, however it does have the look and feel of a project that has a product to sell and buyers to buy it - something the Alaska Gas story has lacked until now.

Given the project permitting history of the Keystone XL project and the Dakota Access Pipeline the AGDC probably only has a 42 month window to work, that is the probable tenure of the current project friendly president in office. The clock is ticking.

KOGAS MOU

Finally - An agreement with an actual LNG Customer.

The Alaska Gasline Development Corporation (AGDC) has announced signing of a Memorandum Of Understanding (MOU) with the Korea Gas Corporation (KOGAS).

AGDC LINK

The AGDC announcement is sparse on details like volumes, cost and schedule.

After so many false starts it would be easy to write this off as just one more announcement that goes nowhere, however KOGAS is a big customer of Qatar and recent events should drive any rational LNG buyer to the conclusion to shift volumes outside of the Qatar / Saudi Arabia conflict region. 

Senate Resources Committee documents : August 2016

Follow the excitement as the biggest project in the world pivots from private ownership to State ownership and possible financial ruin:

LINK 8/25

LINK 8/24

LINK - HOUSE

LINK - SENATE 

 

 

Alaska LNG Competitiveness Study

Link:  Alaska LNG Competitiveness Study

SoA case looks like the only viable option now provided the State position expands.

U.S. Gulf Coast just got closer to Asia

LNG produced on the US Gulf Coast is about to move closer to Asia.  This negatively impacts the competitiveness of the Alaska LNG project.

Link

Pacific NorthWest LNG

Pacific NorthWest LNG continues to make progress while AK LNG falters.

"The Canadian Environmental Assessment Agency (CEAA) released its draft environmental assessment report and proposed conditions for the Pacific NorthWest LNG project."

Link to the draft environmental assessment report.

Alaska Gas Pipeline / LNG Project Presentations

Link to Recent Presentation made to the Alaska State Legislature:

Project Presentations (Steve Butt)

Find more at (LINK)

Governor Walker's Ultimatum Letter to Producers
 

TC IN or OUT

The State of Alaska is struggling to get the gas pipeline and LNG project back on track.  A new report by Black and Veatch lays out the risk, cost and advantages of moving forward without TransCanada (TC).  LINK TO REPORT.

The participation of TC is a legacy of the Palin years and the AGIA process.  Governor Parnell ended AGIA and now Governor Walker is looking to buy out TC.

The world has moved on over the years and soon interest rates will increase and weed out marginal projects like the Alaska LNG project. The project is not a project without customers willing to commit to buying the product.  Maybe the time is right for the State to tidy up the partnership, get aligned and pull the project out of the ditch before it is too late.

The Next Big Project : C U N B C ?

I guess I have a pretty bad skill set when it comes to picking the next big project.  Back in 2005 I thought the AK pipeline was the next big one...then Sarah and Shale gas and global economic problems set in.  At this point I'm about 100% certain that I won't see work on the big job unless they pull ancient codgers out  retirement to read drawings for the new breed of people that call themselves engineers.

If I was a betting man I'd say that Gov. Walker is the new Sarah. Things are off track and you just don't get the idea that the required level of alignment has occurred or ever will occur.  Now low oil prices are casting a long shadow over the finances of all the participants including the State of Alaska.

The next big one: The $36 billion Pacific Northwest LNG project located in British Columbia.  Work will include everything from drilling wells, to building a pipeline and building the LNG plant.  The project has played hard ball with all concerned and it appears they have driven a hard bargain with British Columbia. 

See you there maybe? (C U N B C ?)

Links:

LNG project construction in Prince Rupert could begin later this year: Minister

25-year tax shelter ; BC-Pacific NorthWest deal promises compensation for tax hikes, regulatory changes

LNG protected from tax hikes for 25 years in deal with B.C. government 

Governor Walker responds to HB132

HB 132 seeks to constrain the Alaska Gasline Development Corporation (AGDC) and prevent them from any planning activities related to expanding the size and scope of the Alaska Stand Alone Pipeline (ASAP).



Governor Walker responds to HB132 from Alaska Governor Bill Walker on Vimeo.

Gov. Walker makes good points and  and defends his objective to develop the big gasline project (AKLNG) and work in parallel to make the ASAP option economically viable.

Watch this press conference video - I was real happy to hear the Governor mention competition, the marketplace and potential customers.  This guy understands the trade offs and risk.  He also understands that the neighbors next door are poised to win the LNG race.

Speaking of Canada, they recently came up with a brilliant way to boost the economics of LNG projects. (Globe and Mail Link).  The Canadian approach is to allow LNG projects to depreciate the projects more quickly.  We 'Mericans could benefit from this idea and I don't know why Alaskan politicians aren't taking the hint.  Accelerated depreciation is absolutely the best idea I've heard yet. The idea mitigates the financial risk of spending tens of billions of dollars on a mega project.  I don't agree with the term tax break - it's more of a way of shifting the time the taxes are collected.

Redefining the timing of tax collection is the best idea ever because the government won't collect any taxes from un-built projects.  I hope Senators Lisa Murkowski, Dan Sullivan, Representative Don Young, and Governor Walker warm up to this idea and take note of what Canada has done - it's truly a project enabling action that is 100% in the hands of the politicians. Aside from Gov. Walker exactly what are the rest of Alaska's politicians doing to more the project forward?

Data Dump and Walker Talk

This week the Alaska LNG project submitted a series of draft environmental and socioeconomic reports to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC).  FERC is responsible for conducting the environmental review of the project.

You can find the files at the FERC elibrary site (FERC LINK) and search docket number PF14-21:

 

I'm still downloading and sorting through the documents - so far I don't see anything shocking or new but I'll post any snippets of interest.

Other project news of interest: Gov. Bill Walker  and his team are in New York explaining how they will manage through the current dip in oil revenues. (LINK to Alaska Journal of Commerce).  Whatever misgivings Gov. Walker may have about the project it is now his job to promote the project and represent the project as a source of future revenue.  We should all wish him good luck on his mission to protect the State's bond ratings.  Those ratings play a huge role in the cost of capital to build the project.  At today's low interest rates no one talks much about financing the project, but stay tuned - the day will come when interest rates matter a lot and the date of first revenue matters a lot. 

Speaking of Gov. Walker's misgivings, this week the Governor spoke to lawmakers and indicated in a conditional sort of way that he would drop his Point Thomson lawsuit  (Alaska Dispatch Link) and quote from Alaska Dispatch story: 

Walker said he will move to dismiss his lawsuit after introducing legislation Friday intended to address his concerns.

We'll see what he expects to get out of this legislation but the story in Juneau should flange up with the story in New York. (LINK TO GOV. WALKERS COMMENTS) 

Finally here's a link to an editorial from my favorite Okie Boone Pickens (FORBES LINK) "To Kill A Pipeline...Or Two: The Sad Reality Of Obama's Energy Thinking"  Boone may be an Okie but understands that Obama's Alaska wilderness plans can will kill Alaska oil.  It's off topic for this Alaska LNG project blog, but what's bad for TAPs is bad for LNG too. 

Project FERC Filings and More

The sleepy AK LNG project is generating a flurry of FERC filings.  None are monumentally interesting or overly informative, but if you are following the project take a look and enjoy the filings:

1) Summary of the 10/29/14 telephone conversation re  Alaska Gasline Development Corporation's Alaska LNG Project under PF14-21

2) Summary of the 10/28/14 Telephone conversation re Alaska Department of Natural Resources' Alaska LNG Project under PF14-21

3)   Summary of the 2014-January-2015 conference call between FERC Staff, Alaska LNG Project Staff et al re the Bi-Weekly Pre-filing Process conference call for the Alaska LNG Project  under PF15-21.

4)  Summary of the 10/27/14 Interagency Meeting re laska Gasline Development Corporation's Alaska LNG Project  under PF14-21.


5) Summary of the 10/30/14 Telephone conversation re Alaska Gasline Development Corporation's Alaska LNG Project under PF14-21.


This sounds chilling (i.e. what fresh regulatory horrors are brewing?):

• In addition, the project will require an Alaska National Interest Lands Conservation Act section 810 evaluation. (BLM and the DOI)
•  There is a new arctic policy, which this project will be the test case for its development. This policy is an integrated approach to approving development or projects in the arctic region. This group is wondering how to integrate its process into the National Environmental Policy Act process. (DOI)
  

 6) Alaska LNG Project Monthly Pre-Flining Status Report No. 4 (December 2014)by Alaska Gasline Development Corporation, BP Alaska LNG LLC,ConocoPhillips Alaska LNG Coompany, ExxonMobil Alaska LNG LLC, & TransCanada Alaska Midstream LP under PF14-21.

7) Alaska LNG Project - Community Meetings Summary Letter by Alaska Gasline Development Corporation, BP Alaska LNG LLC, ConocoPhillips Alaska LNG Company, ExxonMobil Alaska LNG LLC, TransCanada Alaska Midstream LP under PF14-21.


Other News: H.R. 351, The LNG Permitting Certainty and Transparency Act  passed the House of Representatives with a vote of 277-133.  Bill Link

Dream Killer?

I guess we're all waiting for the new governor to show some sign that the Alaska LNG project is still on track.  Early indications are not good:

Amanda Coyne Link

Alaska LNG Presentation

Alaska LNG Steve Butt, Senior Project Manager presentation


Link to all Meet Alaska presentations

This Just In..................

No (productive) Alaska LNG news these days so here's some news of a North Slope producer with plans to build 15 - 30 MTPA of capacity in British Columbia:

Globe and Mail Exxon plans to spend up to $25-billion to export B.C. LNG

Project Description

It's early days, but Alaskans need to take note and let this one soak in. The investment and project magnitude is on par with Alaskan LNG, but Exxon / Imperial are moving forward in B.C.

Early days, but British Columbia may beat Alaska in the LNG race.

Parallel Universe - Canadian LNG Blues

Canadian LNG projects are similar to The Alaska LNG effort with some upstream and climatic differences. (LINK TO LNG-N-BC)

A week ago I would have predicted success for the Petronas led Pacific Northwest LNG project but apparently the project economics are not meeting client expectations (Globe and Mail Link). 

At 19.2 MMTPA, the PNW LNG project has about the same capacity as the Alaska LNG project. Gas is supplied to the PNW project via the Prince Rupert Gas Transmission Project which is 560 miles long (240 miles shorter than the Alaska LNG project).  Unlike Alaska, significant upstream development is required to provide gas to the PNW pipeline.

A final investment decision was due this month.


LINK to Map of BC Gas Pipelines

LINK to BC LNG information (BC Environmental Assessment Office website)

LINK to PNW Data

PETRONAS statement regarding LNG development in British Columbia

Quote: PETRONAS and its partners have decided to defer the project’s $36 billion Final Investment Decision (FID) pending further clarity on substantive items of importance to ensure that critical project components align with economic viability of the Project and competition from other LNG producing countries. Costs associated with the pipeline and LNG facility remain challenging and must be reduced further before a positive FID can be undertaken.

ASAP Update

Supplemental environmental impact statement (SEIS) documents are available HERE.

Summary of design changes (page 15 of the presentation)

SOA Alaska LNG Project Current Highlights - Presentation

State of Alaska LNG Project Current Highlights - Presentation

Slowww progress - expect some real news by August 2015 (see page 5 Public Release of Agreements)

DOE Approval, a New Governor, and BBQ

So little tangible progress is being made that I've cut way back on keeping up with this blog, but this week was semi news worthy.

First - DOE approved the Alaska LNG Project LLC 14-96 application to export up to 20 MTPA.  That's a hurdle, not the last hurdle or the biggest hurdle, but good news all the same. (DOE LINK)

Second - Bill Walker won a close race for Governor and unseated Sean Parnell.  For all I know he may be the guy that pushes the project over the next batch of hurdles, however sometimes he scares me and I fear he'll be a deal killer out of the Sarah Palin mold.  But Walker is brighter than Sarah Palin and I think he is truly dedicated to getting the project built.  He may increase the State equity position and that's OK as long as the percentage stays below 50%.  Above that the sparks may fly.

At this point I'm going to stay optimistic and wish Walker all the best luck.

A note of thanks to outgoing Governor Sean Parnell.  He inherited a mess from Sarah Palin, but he cleaned up that mess and got the project back on track, took care of the Point Thomson issues and forged some monumental deals.  Although progress has been slow I don't think Parnell was the problem - he was actually the leader pushing with all he had to get it done.

FYI - every time I type "Bill Walker"  it comes out "Bill Miller" as in Austin Texas BBQ, guess I've been away from Texas too long. so excuse me in advance if I mistype the new Governors name every once in a while - it happens.

Monthly Pre-Filing Status Report No. 01

The first project progress report to FERC is out (LINK).

Stakeholder engagement, studies, field work, pre-design all "tracking".

It looks and feels like 2005/2006 all over again.  So many hurdles yet to go.

Metrics of success I'm looking for:

1) Announcement of customer commitment to buy product
2) Announcement of customer equity participation in project
3) Ordering pipe.