Saturday, November 10, 2012

Vladivostok LNG or Alaska LNG - You're doing it Wrong

Vladivostok Gas Line
Alaskans have again proven they are less nimble in the marketplace and less capable than than other stranded natural gas owners.  Gazprom has announced their plans to build a 2000 mile long gas pipeline (over twice the length of the proposed North Slope to Valdez gas line) to feed a planned LNG plant in Vladivostok.  The LNG plant capacity will be between 10 and 20 mmtpa compared to 25 mmtpa for the Alaska LNG project.  The "all in" cost for field development, pipeline and LNG plant is $44 Billion.

The field development cost is $13.9 Billion and the pipeline cost is $24.8 Billion leaving $5.3 Billion to build the LNG Plant plant.   Assuming a capacity range of 12.5 to 15.0 mmtpa the Gazprom investment equals $2.93 to $3.52 Billion per mmtpa of LNG capacity compared to $2.00 to $2.56 Billion per mmtpa of LNG capacity for Alaskan LNG.

The Gazprom LNG plant cost may be understated, but there is no good reason for Gazprom to bring LNG to market for less cost than the Alaskan project.

The clear message: Alaska LNG - You're doing it Wrong.  Alaskan gas is developed, the distances are less. The customers are the same.  The steel, the talent, the jobs are headed out for projects in all locations outside of Alaska.

Good Luck Gazprom - your investment is safe as long as Alaskans keep kicking the can down the road on the Alaska LNG project.

Alaskans need to learn from this, pick apart the numbers and figure out how to get in the game before the game is over.

Here's the winning formula: Fiscal Certainty + Customer Equity Participation - Taxation Gluttony - Sound Bite Populism = Alaska LNG success.

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