Know Your Competition

The progress and possibilities of American LNG projects have been neatly summarized in a competitive bracket format (Article Link), (Bracket PDF Link).

There are no Western Canadian projects on the bracket, but Alaska's Gas Pipeline / LNG project is listed as a wildcard.

It's a good summary and informative in terms of the projects that are competing for LNG investment dollars.

Spoiler alert - Alaska may not be winning!

No Up Side

"Alaska's fiscal regime is broken" According to Dan Seckers, a tax expert with Exxon Mobil.  He went on to characterize the ACES tax rules as having "no upside" due to progressivity.

From 360north.org:

LNG Project Presentations

The project concept letter from last week was brief and left readers wanting more detail.  This week Mr. Steve Butt Senior Project, Manager Alaska LNG Concept Selection provided a presentation "Progress Exxon/Mobil ConocoPhillips BP &, TransCanada Have Made to Advance North Slope, Natural Gas Development"

LINKS

Video

PDF

Thanks to Matt Buxton, Government Reporter, Fairbanks Daily News-Miner  for providing the links.

I think you'll find the presentation is more informative than the letter.



 

Alaska Gas Pipeline Concept Letter

The North Slope producers and TransCanada have released a letter to Alaska Governor Sean Parnell (LINK to Letter). According to the letter the group has completed the concept selection phase.

 

Nothing earth shattering about the concept.  No indication of any level of commitment. Note that the letter is not signed by CEOs.  It does feel like we are getting nowhere faster these days.

 

Northern Alliance

I didn’t see this coming. Looks like a crafty deal. Possible new source of capital for the Alaska gas line?  Coordinated development of the Arctic. Free market at work - gotta love it




Exxon-Mobil Rosneft Arctic Deal LINK

ASAP - Bigger Pipe Dryer Gas

The Alaska Stand Alone Pipeline (ASAP) annual plan is out (LINK).

The 500 MCFD pipeline has grown from a "wet" gas 24" diameter (at 2500 psi) pipeline to a dry or lean gas 36" diameter (at 1480 psi) pipeline.

The change reflects a drop in value of natural gas liquids (NGL) due to - you guessed it - the lower 48 shale gas miracle. No NGLs means no propane for rural Alaska.

The project cost increased slightly to 7.7 B$ from 7.5 B$  (+/-30%)

The report inindicates that RFQs (Request for Qualifications) and RFPs (Request for Proposals) have been sent to qualified firms and that negotiations will start in January 2013.

The project lacks and agreement with and LNG anchor tenant.  Summary shown below (click to enlarge)

 

As projects go I suppose this is OK news unless you want a job soon or propane in the future. I'm always looking for the big impact announcements like "Notice to Proceed". Maybe next year....(the official Alaska Gas Pipeline blog motto).

2013 - Alaska off to a Slow Start, Again

Normally I look forward to reading a report titled "Alaska Pipeline Project's Pre-Filing Status Report 4th Quarter 2012 under PF09-11" The report documents that nothing remotely akin to progress is going on in Alaska..

The positive gas project news report of the week came from the Canadians, From Bloomberg:

Progress Energy Canada, purchased by Petronas last month for C$5.2 billion, selected Calgary-based TransCanada to build the Prince Rupert pipeline, which will be capable of expansion to 3.6 billion cubic feet a day, according to today’s statement. The project is TransCanada’s second proposed pipeline to an LNG export terminal on the West Coast, following its previously announced Coastal GasLink pipeline.