This Weeks Items of Note

No real news on the Alaska Gas Line, so here are some gas industry related tidbits:

• Shell expands LNG option for 18-wheelers.  Good, gas displaces lower 48 oil imports it also creates a new demand for lower 48 shale gas.
• TransCanada to build pipeline for Shell LNG plant.  Money well spent.  One third the capacity of the Alaska Gas Line at one fifth the price (LNG plant cost excluded). Another Link
• Gas Line Options
• Lower 48 Gas will displace coal for power generation. Combined cycle gas fired plants are the wave of the future.
• A reminder that all LNG investments are risky, things may turn sour in Australia.
• Dragging their heals on LNG exports.  The feds aren't about to move on energy projects until the elections are over.

More Cowbell - Thanks Lisa

The Alaska Gas Pipeline project has a fever and the only cure is more cowbell.  This week Senator Lisa Murkowski earned the coveted Alaska Gas Pipeline Blog three cowbell award for her efforts to push the project to potential Asian LNG buyers (LINK), and quote:

Murkowski discussed Alaska’s resource base and proximity to Asia with Ambassador Ichiro Fujisaki of Japan and Ambassador Choi Young-jin of South Korea. Murkowski said the ambassadors showed interest in the potential for an Alaska natural gas pipeline and liquefied natural gas project to deliver affordable energy to Asia.

Good job Lisa, that gas ain't gonna sell it's self. Governor Parnell and Senator Begich, don't despair, there's more awards out there. 

Canada LNG

Shell / KOGAS / Mitsubishi / PetroChina have announced a 12 MTPA LNG plant on Canada's west coast (LINK).  That's about half the size of the possible Alaskan LNG project.  The LNG Canada plant will be located in Kitimat B.C. home of another LNG project Kitimat LNG (LINK).  At 5 MTPA the total of the two plants is less than the possible Alaskan LNG project.

I say "possible" Alaskan LNG project for two reasons 1) LNG isn't crude oil, the potential margins and profits are much less,  and 2) Competition is heating up and Alaska is way behind Australia, the U.S. Gulf Coast and now Canada.

Maybe economies of scale will tip the balance, but remember "You can't dabble at LNG"  Alaska continues to lack the key ingredient of buyer participation.  Until a Japanese, Korean, or Chinese LNG buyer signs up for a portion of Alaskan LNG project we're all just dabbling at LNG.

One Message: Alaskan LNG

At long last Alaskan leadership is on message with the same story: LNG.  Lower 48 shale gas killed the gas pipeline to Canada.  The pipeline is headed to a tidewater LNG plant.  We can still argue about the route, taxes, branch lines, straddle plants and natural gas liquids, but consider the main project objective settled.

On Wednesday Dept of Natural Resources Commissioner Dan Sullivan and Dept. of Revenue Commissioner Bryan Butcher approved TransCanada's Project Plan Amendment (PPA) which switches the gasline focus to commercialization of Alaskan gas a LNG for export (LINK to approval letter).

Meanwhile Senator Lisa Murkowski is in Japan talking Alaskan LNG (LINK).  DNR Commissioner Dan Sullivan also pitches Alaskan LNG in Asia (Slides).  Of course Governor Parnell is on message with his support of the LNG project (LINK). Finally the North Slope producers are aligned (LINK).

Looks like the end of the beginning.

Murkowski Markets Alaskan Gas

Lisa Murkowski is on the road marketing Alaskan Gas - (LINK) Quote:

WASHINGTON, D.C. – U.S. Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, yesterday continued her efforts to develop new markets for Alaska’s 35 trillion cubic feet of natural gas on the North Slope by raising the potential of providing a long-term, stable supply of energy to Japan with Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda at a dinner hosted by U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

“Alaska’s gas is the perfect fit to meet Japan’s energy needs,” Murkowski said. “An LNG line from the North Slope could deliver long-term, stable energy supplies to Japan at a reasonable price. Such a project would be a win-win, both in terms of energy security and environmental policy for Alaska and Japan.”

Murkowski’s conversation with Prime Minister Noda follows a series of meetings she helped lead last week in Washington, D.C., with members of Japan’s Parliament. Murkowski, who is the vice-chair of the U.S. Japan Interparliamentary Group, discussed the benefits of Alaska natural gas to Japan with members of the Diet.

Good Job Keep it up -

Dan Sullivan Pitching Alaskan LNG?

According to this story by Steve Levine  (LINK) Dan Sullivan is visiting China and Japan pitching the security of LNG from Alaska.  There's also another related story by Levine (LINK).

Apparently there's a 14 slide presentation he presents.  I've asked the DNR for a copy (can't find it on their website).

Quotes from the Steve Levine story:

When Dan Sullivan, Alaska's bare-knuckles natural resources chief, stands before a decisionmaker from China or Japan, he whips out a 14-slide PowerPoint and minces no words: You may be currently buying natural gas from Russia, Qatar or Australia, but take my advice. Get some security in your energy portfolio -- add Alaskan gas.
Perhaps, but Sullivan must also persuade the oil companies, which will have to spend an estimated $40 billion to develop the necessary pipeline and LNG infrastructure. Alaska's Parnell is pushing the companies for a serious draft working plan for LNG export, along with an aggressive construction timetable, by September. Given the level of planning and preparation required for such projects, a rapid effort would have the LNG facility completed in about 2019, Sullivan estimates. If the companies can promise all that, Sullivan says, the governor is prepared to put a reasonable long-term tax and royalty deal before the state Legislature for approval in its next session, which begins in January.

If true this is true then it's good news, but why isn't this story more widely reported and discussed?  I look forward to some more information on Dan's trip.  It's good to know someone is out pushing the project.

Northern Pipelines - On Hold

Low gas prices can't support Arctic gas pipelines:

First the Mackenzie Pipeline (Calgary Herald link) and quote:

CALGARY - Partners in the proposed Mackenzie Valley pipeline have put the $16.2-billion project on hold, slashing budgets and eliminating staff in response to continued poor price outlooks and lack of commercial support.
Imperial Oil, the lead producer in the project with a 34 per cent interest, will close offices in Norman Wells and Fort Simpson, Northwest Territories, this year, and has reduced the size of its office in Inuvik, N.W.T., spokesman Jon Harding said Thursday.
Cheap shale gas that pulled down prices, and cost escalations played into the partners' decision to cut capital on the pipeline project, he said

Back in Alaska pipeline company TransCanada has asked permission to curtail work on the eastern part of the Alaska Gas Pipeline (LINK) and quote:

TransCanada has asked the commissioners of Natural Resources and Revenue to allow it to "curtail" its work on a line that would run from Alaska's North Slope into Alberta, Canada, to focus on a liquefied natural gas project, said Tony Palmer, the company's vice president for major projects development. TransCanada's piece of that project would be the pipeline.

So now there is one project with two probable phases. Alaska LNG pipeline Phase 1 (condensate to TAPS and gas Prudhoe Bay) then Phase 2 (Gas to tidewater + LNG plant).  Lots of permutations and iterations along the way, but many options are now off the table.  Expect LNG for Japan, Korea and China in about a decade.