Data Dump and Walker Talk

This week the Alaska LNG project submitted a series of draft environmental and socioeconomic reports to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC).  FERC is responsible for conducting the environmental review of the project.

You can find the files at the FERC elibrary site (FERC LINK) and search docket number PF14-21:

 

I'm still downloading and sorting through the documents - so far I don't see anything shocking or new but I'll post any snippets of interest.

Other project news of interest: Gov. Bill Walker  and his team are in New York explaining how they will manage through the current dip in oil revenues. (LINK to Alaska Journal of Commerce).  Whatever misgivings Gov. Walker may have about the project it is now his job to promote the project and represent the project as a source of future revenue.  We should all wish him good luck on his mission to protect the State's bond ratings.  Those ratings play a huge role in the cost of capital to build the project.  At today's low interest rates no one talks much about financing the project, but stay tuned - the day will come when interest rates matter a lot and the date of first revenue matters a lot. 

Speaking of Gov. Walker's misgivings, this week the Governor spoke to lawmakers and indicated in a conditional sort of way that he would drop his Point Thomson lawsuit  (Alaska Dispatch Link) and quote from Alaska Dispatch story: 

Walker said he will move to dismiss his lawsuit after introducing legislation Friday intended to address his concerns.

We'll see what he expects to get out of this legislation but the story in Juneau should flange up with the story in New York. (LINK TO GOV. WALKERS COMMENTS) 

Finally here's a link to an editorial from my favorite Okie Boone Pickens (FORBES LINK) "To Kill A Pipeline...Or Two: The Sad Reality Of Obama's Energy Thinking"  Boone may be an Okie but understands that Obama's Alaska wilderness plans can will kill Alaska oil.  It's off topic for this Alaska LNG project blog, but what's bad for TAPs is bad for LNG too. 

Project FERC Filings and More

The sleepy AK LNG project is generating a flurry of FERC filings.  None are monumentally interesting or overly informative, but if you are following the project take a look and enjoy the filings:

1) Summary of the 10/29/14 telephone conversation re  Alaska Gasline Development Corporation's Alaska LNG Project under PF14-21

2) Summary of the 10/28/14 Telephone conversation re Alaska Department of Natural Resources' Alaska LNG Project under PF14-21

3)   Summary of the 2014-January-2015 conference call between FERC Staff, Alaska LNG Project Staff et al re the Bi-Weekly Pre-filing Process conference call for the Alaska LNG Project  under PF15-21.

4)  Summary of the 10/27/14 Interagency Meeting re laska Gasline Development Corporation's Alaska LNG Project  under PF14-21.


5) Summary of the 10/30/14 Telephone conversation re Alaska Gasline Development Corporation's Alaska LNG Project under PF14-21.


This sounds chilling (i.e. what fresh regulatory horrors are brewing?):

• In addition, the project will require an Alaska National Interest Lands Conservation Act section 810 evaluation. (BLM and the DOI)
•  There is a new arctic policy, which this project will be the test case for its development. This policy is an integrated approach to approving development or projects in the arctic region. This group is wondering how to integrate its process into the National Environmental Policy Act process. (DOI)
  

 6) Alaska LNG Project Monthly Pre-Flining Status Report No. 4 (December 2014)by Alaska Gasline Development Corporation, BP Alaska LNG LLC,ConocoPhillips Alaska LNG Coompany, ExxonMobil Alaska LNG LLC, & TransCanada Alaska Midstream LP under PF14-21.

7) Alaska LNG Project - Community Meetings Summary Letter by Alaska Gasline Development Corporation, BP Alaska LNG LLC, ConocoPhillips Alaska LNG Company, ExxonMobil Alaska LNG LLC, TransCanada Alaska Midstream LP under PF14-21.


Other News: H.R. 351, The LNG Permitting Certainty and Transparency Act  passed the House of Representatives with a vote of 277-133.  Bill Link

Dream Killer?

I guess we're all waiting for the new governor to show some sign that the Alaska LNG project is still on track.  Early indications are not good:

Amanda Coyne Link

Alaska LNG Presentation

Alaska LNG Steve Butt, Senior Project Manager presentation


Link to all Meet Alaska presentations

This Just In..................

No (productive) Alaska LNG news these days so here's some news of a North Slope producer with plans to build 15 - 30 MTPA of capacity in British Columbia:

Globe and Mail Exxon plans to spend up to $25-billion to export B.C. LNG

Project Description

It's early days, but Alaskans need to take note and let this one soak in. The investment and project magnitude is on par with Alaskan LNG, but Exxon / Imperial are moving forward in B.C.

Early days, but British Columbia may beat Alaska in the LNG race.

Parallel Universe - Canadian LNG Blues

Canadian LNG projects are similar to The Alaska LNG effort with some upstream and climatic differences. (LINK TO LNG-N-BC)

A week ago I would have predicted success for the Petronas led Pacific Northwest LNG project but apparently the project economics are not meeting client expectations (Globe and Mail Link). 

At 19.2 MMTPA, the PNW LNG project has about the same capacity as the Alaska LNG project. Gas is supplied to the PNW project via the Prince Rupert Gas Transmission Project which is 560 miles long (240 miles shorter than the Alaska LNG project).  Unlike Alaska, significant upstream development is required to provide gas to the PNW pipeline.

A final investment decision was due this month.


LINK to Map of BC Gas Pipelines

LINK to BC LNG information (BC Environmental Assessment Office website)

LINK to PNW Data

PETRONAS statement regarding LNG development in British Columbia

Quote: PETRONAS and its partners have decided to defer the project’s $36 billion Final Investment Decision (FID) pending further clarity on substantive items of importance to ensure that critical project components align with economic viability of the Project and competition from other LNG producing countries. Costs associated with the pipeline and LNG facility remain challenging and must be reduced further before a positive FID can be undertaken.

DOE Approval, a New Governor, and BBQ

So little tangible progress is being made that I've cut way back on keeping up with this blog, but this week was semi news worthy.

First - DOE approved the Alaska LNG Project LLC 14-96 application to export up to 20 MTPA.  That's a hurdle, not the last hurdle or the biggest hurdle, but good news all the same. (DOE LINK)

Second - Bill Walker won a close race for Governor and unseated Sean Parnell.  For all I know he may be the guy that pushes the project over the next batch of hurdles, however sometimes he scares me and I fear he'll be a deal killer out of the Sarah Palin mold.  But Walker is brighter than Sarah Palin and I think he is truly dedicated to getting the project built.  He may increase the State equity position and that's OK as long as the percentage stays below 50%.  Above that the sparks may fly.

At this point I'm going to stay optimistic and wish Walker all the best luck.

A note of thanks to outgoing Governor Sean Parnell.  He inherited a mess from Sarah Palin, but he cleaned up that mess and got the project back on track, took care of the Point Thomson issues and forged some monumental deals.  Although progress has been slow I don't think Parnell was the problem - he was actually the leader pushing with all he had to get it done.

FYI - every time I type "Bill Walker"  it comes out "Bill Miller" as in Austin Texas BBQ, guess I've been away from Texas too long. so excuse me in advance if I mistype the new Governors name every once in a while - it happens.

Monthly Pre-Filing Status Report No. 01

The first project progress report to FERC is out (LINK).

Stakeholder engagement, studies, field work, pre-design all "tracking".

It looks and feels like 2005/2006 all over again.  So many hurdles yet to go.

Metrics of success I'm looking for:

1) Announcement of customer commitment to buy product
2) Announcement of customer equity participation in project
3) Ordering pipe.

Project Data Filed with FERC

Lots of AK-LNG project filings:

(FERC FILINGS)

Project Legislative Briefing

Project Description (public version)

JAPAN

At long last we're starting to read about Japan's interest in new Alaska LNG.

From the Alaska Dispatch we learn than teams from Alaska are visiting Japan (LINK) and from Nikkei we learn that Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry will sign a memorandum or understanding with the Alaska project (LINK).

Why is this important? - You only build bankable projects and the cost of world scale LNG plants require that you must sell your product before you can obtain financing.  For example look at the customer side of a current project like Cheniere (LINK).  The Alaska LNG project must execute sales agreements before the project moves into the detail engineering and construction phase.

LNG Customer interest?

Good news for Alaska LNG - signs of LNG customer interest (PLATTS LINK)

ALASKA LNG FERC FILINGS

Signs of life for the Alaska LNG Project?

New Files: Request to Commence Pre-Filing Process - Alaska LNG Project by ConocoPhillips, BP, ExxonMobil, etal 

Milestone schedule:

 

Find more at the FERC ELibrary  website (LINK)

Use the "General Search" option and Docket number PF 14-21

Project Docket : PF14-21-000

Another filing (LNG Export application) is located at http://energy.gov/fe/downloads/alaska-lng-project-llc-14-96-lng

TransCanada Out?

Link

Perhaps this is a procedural step needed in order to make way for the new and improved project team.

Another BC LNG Project

The list of Alaska sized LNG projects in BC just keeps growing.  Latest contender: Quicksilver Resources, Campbell River, BC (Application LINK) 

BC LNG projects website (LINK)

Project website (LINK)

DOE LNG Export Application

Find it here (LINK)

Department of Energy Filing

From Governor Parnell's website:

July 21, 2014, Anchorage, Alaska – After ensuring that Alaska’s gas could go to Alaskans first, Governor Sean Parnell today lauded Alaska’s LNG Project for applying to export liquefied natural gas (LNG). The application was submitted to the U.S. Department of Energy.

“We are building Alaska’s future with a gasline to heat our homes and fuel Alaska’s businesses,” Governor Parnell said. “Alaska’s LNG Project is on the right track with hundreds of Alaskans out in the field this summer working to secure permits and hundreds more working to refine the engineering and design challenges of the project. I am committed to getting Alaska’s gas to Alaskans and then to markets beyond. I look forward to continued progress on this important project.”

The application requests authorization to export up to 20 million metric tons per year of LNG for a period of 30 years. The application seeks to export to countries that have existing free trade agreements with the U.S. and to non-free trade agreement countries.

Link to Platts (more detail)

Alaska-LNG website press release

$70 Billion Gas Line

No, it's not the Alaska Gas Line and LNG Project (thank goodness) - it's the Gazprom Russia to China "Power of Siberia" pipeline. (LINK). The Russian project estimate is now at $70B, surpassing the $65B price tag for the Alaska gas project.

In other news, the quarterly Exxon FERC Alaska Pipeline Project activity report doesn't indicate any activity. (LINK)

Canadian LNG Report

In terms of markets, project cost, technology, and risk the proposed Alaskan Gas Pipeline and LNG project has a lot in common with the proposed western British Columbia LNG projects.

Here's a link to a report titled: "RISKY BUSINESS: THE ISSUE OF TIMING, ENTRY AND PERFORMANCE IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC LNG MARKET" M.C. Moore, D. Hackett, L. Noda, J. Winter, R. Karski and M. Pilcher The School of Public Policy

Canadian LNG Projects

Need a summary of the long list of Canadian LNG Projects?  Me too.  Find it here (LINK)

Projects sized to compete with Alaska LNG (10 MMTPA or greater):

LNG Canada (LINK)  24 MMTPA

Kitimat LNG (LINK)  10MMTPA

Kitsault Energy (LINK)  20 MMTPA

British Gas Group (BG Group) (LINK) 21 MMTPA

Pacific NorthWest LNG (LINK)  18 MMTPA

Aurora LNG (LINK)  24 MMTPA

Canada Stewart Energy Group Ltd (LINK) 30 MMTPA

Interesting mix of projects - about 7 times the volume of the proposed Alaska LNG Project.

H.R. 6, the Domestic Prosperity and Global Freedom Act

Get'r Done Bill for LNG Exports

Link

Link to Bill