tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1637400230845782321.post8678391624043005611..comments2023-07-12T23:56:31.870-08:00Comments on Alaska Gas Pipeline: State of Alaska Provides Details of Gas Line AnalysisAK Engineerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14212732718869625585noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1637400230845782321.post-71174920398484004572008-05-30T03:58:00.000-08:002008-05-30T03:58:00.000-08:00Good point. The Oil / Gas production trade offs d...Good point. The Oil / Gas production trade offs decisions really should be handled by the producers. I'm thinking that ConocoPhillips balances future oil lost in AK with future tar sand oil produced in Canada.<BR/><BR/>The ConocoPhillips revenue numbers look better when you assume the AK gas will be converted enable higher tar sand production.<BR/><BR/>In that scenario Alaska is the production and revenue loser - I'm not sure the leadership understands the full equation.AK Engineerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14212732718869625585noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1637400230845782321.post-21471616614739494482008-05-29T21:39:00.000-08:002008-05-29T21:39:00.000-08:00Yeah, but NPV does NOT subtract the Prudhoe OIL LO...Yeah, but NPV does NOT subtract the Prudhoe OIL LOST<BR/> ... assuming that Oil does as they assume Gas will : DOUBLE, and STAY THAT HIGH FOREVER, then we Must assume at LEAST the Alaska Dept. of Revenue estimate of 300 million barrels lost before the pipe shuts down -- so: 770 as we know Icebreaker tankers can take the rest -- times the same TWICE CURRENT PRICE, FOREVER =<BR/>$260/barrel x 300 m. = $78-200 Billion. ( With current technology: i.e. 6% yearly Oil yearly declines, vz 10%, after Gas withdrawls depressure the Oil ). Subtract from Alaska's $261 B. Gain:<BR/><BR/> = TRUE NET only $61 Billion or:<BR/> $1.20 per Thousand cubic feet.<BR/><BR/>... But tech always improves.<BR/> If in 2025+ we can reduce declines to 3%, not 6%, we lose 1300 m. barrels = $338 Billion = a net LOSS, i.e. PAYMENT, by Alaska, of $87 Billion.<BR/><BR/>That wipes out the Permanent Fund.<BR/><BR/>A Special Tax on Alaskans can collect the rest ... IF you are lucky. After all, DESTROYING the Oil is like Vandalism ... courts award TRIPLE DAMAGES for that!custerwilsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09492169915142027028noreply@blogger.com